Research — Javier Bianchi

Bank Runs, Fragility, and Regulation

Leverage: competitive equilibrium vs constrained-efficient as a function of run probability

with Manuel Amador — August 2025

How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Housing Inflation?

Shelter inflation lags core ex-shelter PCE

with Alistair Mackay and Neil Mehrotra — December 2024

Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics

International Reserve Management under Rollover Crises

Three-periods exit: portfolio paths in (a, b) space

with Mauricio Barbosa-Alves and Cesar Sosa-Padilla — February 2025

Accepted, Quarterly Journal of Economics

Liquidity Traps, Prudential Policies and International Spillovers

Probability of liquidity trap: inflation targeting vs prudential monetary

with Louphou Coulibaly — July 2025

Accepted, Review of Economic Studies

Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates

Exchange rate as a function of dollar funding risk: scrambling vs normal regime

with Saki Bigio and Charles Engel — March 2025

Revise and Resubmit, Review of Economic Studies

Financial Integration and Monetary Policy Coordination

Policy rates: US, UK, CAN, EUR, 2020-2023

with Louphou Coulibaly — June 2024

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy

A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation

Reserves as percent of output: data vs model, 2001-2015

with Fernando Arce and Julien Bengui

Revise and Resubmit, AEJ Macro

Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps

Output response: No Helicopter Drop vs Commitment

with Manuel Amador — Updated May 2025

[Paper] [Slides]

Tax on borrowing around crises: Data, Political Frictions, Constrained Efficient

The Political Economy of Credit Booms and Macroprudential Regulation

with Cesar Sosa-Padilla and Carlos Bolivar — July 2025

Overborrowing, Financial Crises and Macro-prudential Policy

Credit response around a crisis: decentralized vs financial regulator vs fixed valuation

with Enrique Mendoza — June 2010

International Equity Flows, Monetary Policy, and Time Consistency

Work in Progress

with Alejandro Van der Ghote

[Slides]

Foreign Reserve Management

with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri

[Slides]

Sovereign Debt Crises and Monetary Policy

with Carlos Bolivar

Macroprudential Policy According to Hank

with Louphou Coulibaly and Xing Xu

Publications

Convenience yield function and settlement risk distribution

Portfolio Choice and Settlement Frictions: A Theory of Endogenous Convenience Yields

with Saki Bigio (2025)

Forthcoming, Journal of Economic Theory

A Theory of Fear of Floating

Event analysis: tradable output, bonds, exchange rate, and consumption around self-fulfilling crises

with Louphou Coulibaly (2026)

Journal of Monetary Economics

International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance

Demand and supply of dollar assets shifting with sanctions

with Cesar Sosa-Padilla (2025)

Economic Journal

Overborrowing, Underborrowing and Macroprudential Policy

Debt policy: laissez-faire vs ex-ante policy

with Fernando Arce and Julien Bengui (2025)

Journal of Economic Theory

Bank Runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing

Banks' welfare gains from credit easing under Runs vs Fundamentals

with Manuel Amador (2024)

American Economic Review, 2024

[Paper] [Journal link] [Slides] [Earlier version: Partial Bank Runs]

Home Country welfare W̃(a) under high η vs low η

On Wars, Sanctions and Sovereign Default

with Cesar Sosa-Padilla (2023)

Journal of Monetary Economics, Carnegie-Rochester-NYU 100th Conference

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization and Sovereign Risk

Reserves/GDP for fixed vs flex regimes: data and model

with Cesar Sosa-Padilla (2023)

Review of Economic Studies

The Macroeconomic Consequences of International Financial Sanctions

Sanctions and reserve currency status: demand and supply of dollar assets

with Cesar Sosa-Padilla (2023)

AEA Papers and Proceedings

Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk

Government consumption (% of pre-crisis level) for Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Average, 2008–2014

with Pablo Ottonello and Ignacio Presno (2023)

Journal of Political Economy

Macroprudential Policy with Leakages

Welfare effects: unregulated vs regulated agents

with Julien Bengui (2022)

Journal of International Economics

The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves

Mechanics of FX interventions: intertemporal consumption schedule

with Guido Lorenzoni (2022)

Handbook of International Economics, Vol. V

[Paper] [Slides] [Journal link]

OTC market: Fed Funds Rate and lending bounds as a function of reserve abundance

Banks, Liquidity Management and Monetary Policy

with Saki Bigio (2022)

Econometrica

Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises

Safe, crisis, and default regions in (debt, wage rigidity) space

with Jorge Mondragon (2022)

Quarterly Journal of Economics

[Paper] [Slides] [Journal link]

CA/Y around Sudden Stops: unregulated vs debt tax

A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature

with Enrique Mendoza (2020)

Review of Economic Dynamics

Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound

CIP deviations vs nominal interest rate, pre-2007 vs post-2010

with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2020)

Review of Economic Studies (Featured Article)

[Paper] [Journal link] [Older WP]

Welfare across small, medium, and large protected sphere regimes

Financial Safety Nets

with Julien Bengui and Louphou Coulibaly (2019)

International Economic Review

International Reserves and Rollover Risk

with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez (2018)

American Economic Review

Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy

Crisis probability falling in the macroprudential debt tax

with Enrique Mendoza (2018)

Journal of Political Economy

Welfare effects: optimal policy, systemic bailouts, idiosyncratic bailouts

Efficient Bailouts?

Javier Bianchi (2016)

American Economic Review (Lead Article)

Reverse Speculative Attacks

Swiss National Bank foreign reserves during the EUR/CHF floor

with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2016)

Journal of Economics, Dynamics and Control

[Paper] [Journal link] [Code]

Ergodic distributions of bond holdings: decentralized vs social planner

Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity and Macroprudential Policy

with Chenxin Liu and Enrique Mendoza (2016)

Journal of International Economics

[Paper] [Journal link] [Corrigendum] [Code]

Land price boom-bust dynamics: decentralized vs social planners

Macro-prudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation

with Emine Boz and Enrique Mendoza (2012)

IMF Economic Review

Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle

Ergodic distribution of bond holdings: decentralized vs social planner

Javier Bianchi (2011)

American Economic Review

[Paper] [Journal link] [Appendix] [Matlab Code]

First page of Credit Externalities (AER Papers and Proceedings, 2010)

Credit Externalities: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Implications

Javier Bianchi (2010)

American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings