Browse by topic: Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy · International Reserves · Banking · Monetary Policy · Sovereign Debt · Geoeconomics · Heterogeneous Agents

Working Papers BibTeX — all entries

Foreign holdings as a percentage of GDP
International Equity Flows, Monetary Policy, and Time Consistency
with Alejandro Van der Ghote — August 2026
Paper Slides
Figure 3a for How Small is Small? Non-linearities in Heterogeneous Agent Models
How Small is Small? Non-linearities in Heterogeneous Agent Models
with Greg Kaplan — July 2026
Paper Slides Thread
International Risk-Sharing in a Fragmented World
International Risk-Sharing in a Fragmented World
with Sebastian Horn, Giovanni Rosso, and César Sosa-Padilla — May 2026
Paper Slides
Baseline response to a permanent tariff
The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Tariffs
with Louphou Coulibaly — August 2026
Paper Slides Policy highlights Thread
Press and Policy Coverage: Financial Times | Reuters | Central Banking | Speech by Governor Christopher J. Waller
Leverage: competitive equilibrium vs constrained-efficient as a function of run probability
Bank Runs, Fragility, and Regulation
with Manuel Amador — August 2025
Paper Slides Policy highlights
Shelter inflation lags core ex-shelter PCE
How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Housing Inflation?
with Alisdair McKay and Neil Mehrotra — December 2024
Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics
Paper Slides Policy highlights Thread
Exchange rate as a function of dollar funding risk: scrambling vs normal regime
Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates
with Saki Bigio and Charles Engel — March 2025
Revise and Resubmit, Review of Economic Studies
Paper
Policy rates: US, UK, CAN, EUR, 2020-2023
Financial Integration and Monetary Policy Coordination
with Louphou Coulibaly — June 2024
Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy
Paper Slides Policy highlights
Reserves as percent of output: data vs model, 2001-2015
A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation
with Fernando Arce and Julien Bengui
Revise and Resubmit, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Paper
Output response: No Helicopter Drop vs Commitment
Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps
with Manuel Amador — Updated May 2025
Paper Slides
Tax on borrowing around crises: Data, Political Frictions, Constrained Efficient
The Political Economy of Credit Booms and Macroprudential Regulation
with César Sosa-Padilla and Carlos Bolívar — July 2025
Paper
Partial Bank Runs and Optimal Default
Partial Bank Runs and Optimal Default
with Manuel Amador — 2023
Paper
Credit response around a crisis: decentralized vs financial regulator vs fixed valuation
Overborrowing, Financial Crises and Macro-prudential Policy
with Enrique Mendoza — June 2010
Paper
Policy Coverage: ECB | Bank of England

Work in Progress

Foreign Reserve Management
with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri
Slides
One Money, Many Debts: Monetary Credibility and Self-Fulfilling Sovereign Risk in a Monetary Union
with Carlos Bolívar
Macroprudential Policy According to HANK
with Louphou Coulibaly and Xing Xu

Publications BibTeX — all entries

Three-periods exit: portfolio paths in (a, b) space
International Reserve Management under Rollover Crises
with Mauricio Barbosa-Alves and César Sosa-Padilla — February 2025
Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2026
Paper Slides Policy highlights Thread
Probability of liquidity trap: inflation targeting vs prudential monetary
Liquidity Traps, Prudential Policies, and International Spillovers
with Louphou Coulibaly — July 2025
Review of Economic Studies, July 2026
Paper
Convenience yield function and settlement risk distribution
Portfolio Choice and Settlement Frictions: A Theory of Endogenous Convenience Yields
with Saki Bigio — May 2026
Journal of Economic Theory, May 2026
Paper Journal link Policy highlights
Event analysis: tradable output, bonds, exchange rate, and consumption around self-fulfilling crises
A Theory of Fear of Floating
with Louphou Coulibaly
Journal of Monetary Economics, January 2026
Paper Journal link
Demand and supply of dollar assets shifting with sanctions
International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance
with César Sosa-Padilla
Economic Journal, July 2025
Paper Journal link
Debt policy: laissez-faire vs ex-ante policy
Overborrowing, Underborrowing and Macroprudential Policy
with Fernando Arce and Julien Bengui
Journal of Economic Theory, June 2025
Paper Journal link
Banks' welfare gains from credit easing under Runs vs Fundamentals
Bank Runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing
with Manuel Amador
American Economic Review, July 2024
Paper Journal link Slides Thread
Home Country welfare W̃(a) under high η vs low η
On Wars, Sanctions and Sovereign Default
with César Sosa-Padilla
Journal of Monetary Economics, October 2023
Paper Journal link Thread
Reserves/GDP for fixed vs flex regimes: data and model
Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization and Sovereign Risk
with César Sosa-Padilla
Review of Economic Studies, July 2023
Paper Journal link Thread
Sanctions and reserve currency status: demand and supply of dollar assets
The Macroeconomic Consequences of International Financial Sanctions
with César Sosa-Padilla
AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023
Paper Journal link
Government consumption (% of pre-crisis level) for Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Average, 2008–2014
Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk
with Pablo Ottonello and Ignacio Presno
Journal of Political Economy, September 2023
Paper Journal link
Policy Coverage: IMF Fiscal Monitor
Welfare effects: unregulated vs regulated agents
Macroprudential Policy with Leakages
with Julien Bengui
Journal of International Economics, November 2022
Paper Journal link
Mechanics of FX interventions: intertemporal consumption schedule
The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves
with Guido Lorenzoni
Handbook of International Economics, Vol. V, 2022
Paper Slides Journal link
OTC market: Fed Funds Rate and lending bounds as a function of reserve abundance
Banks, Liquidity Management and Monetary Policy
with Saki Bigio
Econometrica, January 2022
Paper Journal link
Safe, crisis, and default regions in (debt, wage rigidity) space
Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises
with Jorge Mondragón
Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2022
Paper Slides Journal link
CA/Y around Sudden Stops: unregulated vs debt tax
A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature
with Enrique Mendoza
Review of Economic Dynamics, August 2020
Paper Journal link
CIP deviations vs nominal interest rate, pre-2007 vs post-2010
Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri
Review of Economic Studies (Featured Article), July 2020
Paper Journal link Older WP
Welfare across small, medium, and large protected sphere regimes
Financial Safety Nets
with Julien Bengui and Louphou Coulibaly
International Economic Review, August 2019
Paper Journal link
Reserves vs likelihood of sudden stops
International Reserves and Rollover Risk
with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
American Economic Review, September 2018
Paper Journal link
Policy Coverage: Bank of Canada
Asset price response: laissez-faire vs macroprudential policy
Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy
with Enrique Mendoza
Journal of Political Economy, April 2018
Paper Journal link
Welfare effects: optimal policy, systemic bailouts, idiosyncratic bailouts
Efficient Bailouts?
Javier Bianchi
American Economic Review (Lead Article), December 2016
Paper Journal link
Swiss National Bank foreign reserves during the EUR/CHF floor
Reverse Speculative Attacks
with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, November 2016
Paper Journal link Code
Ergodic distributions of bond holdings: decentralized vs social planner
Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity and Macroprudential Policy
with Chenxin Liu and Enrique Mendoza
Journal of International Economics, March 2016
Paper Journal link Corrigendum Code
Land price boom-bust dynamics: decentralized vs social planners
Macro-prudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation
with Emine Boz and Enrique Mendoza
IMF Economic Review, June 2012
Paper Journal link
Ergodic distribution of bond holdings: decentralized vs social planner
Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle
Javier Bianchi
American Economic Review, 2011
Paper Journal link Appendix Matlab Code
First page of Credit Externalities (AER Papers and Proceedings, 2010)
Credit Externalities: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Implications
Javier Bianchi
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 2010
Paper Journal link